AFGHANISTAN WITHOUT AMERICA

ALI SUKHANVER

Division, addition, subtraction and multiplication; these are not simply the basic functions of mathematics but the most possible solutions to so many complex and complicated problems of life. Al around us from Iraq to Afghanistan and from the balkanized states of USSR to India, the whole strategy is revolving on the axis of these four mathematical actions. When the US authorities felt the growing unison of different Afghan groups and tribes in shape of a nation, they started planning to create differences and distances among them so that they might not become a challenge to the US hold ,authority and vested interests  in the region. Unfortunately this ‘division’ could not do much better from the US point of view, so the next rule, the rule of ‘addition’ was applied to the situation by staging the 9/11 incident. This incident provided the US authorities a very logical and secure type of reasoning paving way for them to invade Afghanistan. Thousands of US troops landed the land of Pashtuns and Afghans without the prior permission of the local people. Very soon the US authorities realized that they won’t be able tackle with the situation alone, so the NATO forces were invited to join hands there. Within no time Afghanistan became a rest house for thousands of the NATO soldiers. Unfortunately the angry Afghans turned this rest house into graveyard for some of these unlucky adventurers. However the rule of ‘Multiplication’ was successfully applied. God knows better why all these tools proved futile and the scenario remained the same as it was before the US invasion. At last the US planners started thinking of applying the last option, the option of ‘Subtraction’. First of all  the world was given a  ‘Breaking news’ that USA would get out of the Afghan lands by mid  2011 but internationally this news was given no more importance than   a routine policy statement because world is very well aware of the fact that US policies and statements keep on changing according to the requirement and situation.

At the same time,  USA is also very well acquainted with this air of disbelief on its part; that is why it started dragging some other ‘insane’ partners into the situation so that the blame and responsibility could  be shifted upon them in case US policy of quitting Afghanistan changes. The most prominent of these partners is India. It is a US misunderstanding that India could take care of the US interests in the region when apparently it is no more there. On the basis of this misunderstanding US is trying its utmost to provide India all possible support and favour so that it may prove itself an ideal substitute of USA in the region. Moreover India itself is showing its over-eagerness and over-excitement in opting for that US suggested role by offering subserviently various services regarding the reconstruction of the shattered Afghan structure. It is building new roads and new diplomatic outposts very close to the border areas and pouring billions of dollars into this war-torn land in form of donations and charity funding. The financial support which India is providing to Afghanistan is very much heart-breaking and astonishingly shocking for the millions of Indian people who are leading a life worse than animals. They have nothing to eat nothing to treat because the government of India is out of pocket. Increasing rate of poverty, joblessness combined with injustice and lawlessness is giving birth to the Naxal and Maoist type of movements. The situation is alarming not only for the ever-crushed strata of Indian society but also for Pakistan. Discussing India’s growing interference in Afghanistan, Sue Pleming, a well known analyst on Afghanistan affairs says in an article, “While U.S. diplomats have praised the $1.3 billion India has pumped into reconstruction work in Afghanistan since 2001, military commanders have voiced concern that muscle-flexing by India could provoke Pakistan and stir up regional tensions.”

Unfortunately the US authorities have intentionally turned a blind eye to the situation. They are ignoring the fact that the increasing involvement of India in Afghanistan would add to the miseries of the people of Afghanistan. Some of the western analysts are adding to the confusions and misunderstandings by suggesting new strategic solutions to the problem. Former US Ambassador to India Robert Blackwill is also one of such analysts. In his opinion piece published in ‘Politico’ Blackwill says, “President Obama’s Afghan strategy is heading towards a failure. The best option available with the White House is to divide the war torn country.” He also warned that Pakistan would never back the idea of Afghanistan’s de facto partition, and managing its reaction would be a difficult task for the Obama administration. Moreover fearing a return of Pakistan dominance in Afghanistan, India would likely encourage Washington to continue ground combat in south Afghanistan for many years to come”. On one hand Blackwill is suggesting to the US authorities to divide Afghanistan into portions and on the other hand he is alarming India that a prolonged war in Afghanistan would be in its larger benefit. The point to be remembered is that Blackwill had been serving as deputy national security adviser for strategic planning and presidential envoy to Iraq during Bush’ regime. During that period it was suggested to the US authorities to divide Iraq into different portions, so that different groups of local population might remain engaged in combating one another after the US forces had vacated the lands of Iraq. Now the same suggestion is being repeated for Afghanistan.

Taliban are the only force which can keep Afghanistan stable and peaceful after the US forces say good-bye to this land though there are very vivid chances of horrible bloodshed and slaughtering.  India could never play a vital role in tackling with the situation because it does not have strong ties with the actual Taliban rather India has caused a great loss to the Taliban cause by inserting terrorist groups among them. Pakistan is one of those few countries that recognized the Taliban regime before the U.S. invasion in 2001.Taliban could never forget this kindness of Pakistan; they would surely seek help from Pakistan if the situation worsens in their country. Situation in Afghanistan could only be improved if a strict check is put on Indian insurgency in Afghanistan and Pakistan is encouraged to take care of the situation.

The writer is a Pakistan based bilingual analyst on defence and strategic affairs